With recreational cannabis sales expected to begin in Canada on October 17th, 2018, investors and industry stakeholders alike are wondering just how big the market could get.
To provide us with answers, Vividata integrated results from their Survey of the Canadian Consumer with the first Canadian Cannabis Study to offer unparallelled insights into the upcoming Canadian retail cannabis market.
Canadian Marijuana Market Potential
In the recent Vividata study, we find that the market potential for cannabis sales alone post legalization could be as high as $8 billion CAD.
This figure is slightly higher than Deloitte’s estimates, which estimated that Canadians are expected to spend as much as $7.17 billion CAD on cannabis products in 2019.
The Chicken or the Egg
Which came first?
In the classic dilemma of the chicken or the egg, one might note that all chickens hatch from chicken eggs. On the other hand, all chicken eggs are laid by chickens. Regardless of which came first, a similar phenomenon exists in the Canadian cannabis sector.
Was Canada’s legalization was brought about by the abundance of cannabis consumers, or will Canada’s legalization will bring about an abundance of cannabis consumers?
The answer is both.
Millions of Cannabis Consumers
Vividata’s Canadian Cannabis Study found that 52% of Canadian adults are in support of cannabis legalization while 34% oppose, and 14% are undecided.
Vividata’s study also shows that 22% of Canadians over 19 are current users of cannabis.
If we were to subtract the percentage of current cannabis consumers from the percentage of legalization supporters, that leaves us with a 20% sliver of non-cannabis-consuming Canadians over the age of 19 in support of the plant.
This remainder is not far off from the Vividata estimate that an additional 16% of Canadians over 19 show a likelihood of consuming cannabis after legalization.
With a population of roughly 28.77 million Canadians over 19, that means the cannabis industry can expect over to 4.6 million new customers once legalization hits.
With the potential for millions of new marijuana consumers, Canadian licensed producers are busy ramping up production capacity and signing provincial supply agreements. Be sure to subscribe to our free Canadian licensed producer updates newsletter so you don’t miss a thing.
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